@Risk

Smith Travel Research is holding steady to its somewhat gloomy forecast for 2009. But, says the outlook for hoteliers in 2010 looks slightly better.

Smith Travel Research, Inc. (STR), a recognized leader for hotel industry benchmarking and research, released its monthly forecast earlier this week.

For 2009, STR predicts:

• occupancy to be down 8.4% to 55.4%
• average daily rate (ADR) to decline 9.7% to US$96.43
• revenue per available room (RevPAR) to end with a 17.1% decrease to US$53.43
• supply to increase 3.0%
• demand to decline 5.5%

STR’s slightly improved forecast for 2010 includes positive growth for supply and demand. Supply is predicted to be up 1.8% and demand is expected to increase 1.3%.

However, the other key metrics will continue to drop –although not as drastically as in 2009.  For 2010, STR says you can expect:

• occupancy to decrease 0.6% to 55.1 %
• ADR to decline 3.4% to US$93.16
• RevPAR to fall another 4.0% to US$51.29

“As we close the summer travel season and move into the fourth quarter, there are pressing questions that will be answered in the coming months,” said Chad Church, industry research manager at STR. “The declines in revenue per available room we’ve experienced throughout the past year started in August 2008, but those losses begin to pick up steam in the fourth quarter (particularly November). As we come to conference season again, our outlook for 2010 and 2011 will depend heavily on the performance data we see during the next two months.”