@Risk

Swine flu continues to make headlines this summer, particularly “across the pond” where late last week, the UK’s Home Secretary declared that the virus is a greater threat to Britain than terrorism, and its Chief Medical Officer predicted as many as 65,000 British deaths.

In the UK, more than 650 people have been hospitalized with the H1N1 virus since this spring. While the vast majority of cases have been mild, there have been 29 deaths, including four children and two mothers who died shortly after giving birth. All except one (a six-year old from West London) were known to have been suffering from underlying health problems. But even so, pregnant women have now been advised to avoid crowded areas, and the Department for Children, Schools and Families has suggested that some schools might not reopen after summer vacation, if H1N1 persists in certain neighborhoods.

In the US, the CDC is reporting 40, 617 confirmed and probable cases, as well as 263 deaths. Experts believe that more than a million Americans have been infected with the HINI influenza, and health officials here are also expecting a spike in cases once school goes back into session next month.

As The Guardian so aptly described it on Saturday, “The state of knowledge about the swine flu pandemic is a curious mix of the certain and the unknowable,” and government officials worldwide are struggling to strike the right chord. On the one hand, we all want to be adequately prepared, particularly if a mutation in the virus increases its virulence this fall and winter. On the other hand, no one wants to be labeled a fearmonger.

“…a curious mix of the certain and the unknowable.” Sound familiar? That’s risk management in a nutshell.

As governments across the globe work to cope with the threat of this pandemic, it’s becoming increasingly clear that your company needs to make contingency plans, as well. What will happen to your supply chain if the current pandemic becomes an even broader and more serious problem next flu season?  Preparedness will vary from business to business, and it’s important that you define what “preparedness” means for your organization. For instance, your biggest concern may be employee absenteeism. After all, researchers estimate that 15% to 30% of employees would stay home during such a pandemic due to illness, family-care responsibilities and fear of being infected at work. Others companies may even want to consider stockpiling items like masks, gowns, and flu-relief medication. For many, it appears that the H1N1 pandemic will require a unique level of comprehensive supply chain risk planning specific to this one event.