@Risk

U.S. retail container volume is expected to see three straight months of gains in early 2010, ending more than two years (31 months, to be exact) of declines, according to the monthly Port Tracker report released last week by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and IHS Global Insight.

Port Tracker covers a variety of ports, including: Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Hampton Roads, Charleston and Savannah on the East Coast; and Houston on the Gulf Coast.

In October, the most recent month for which actual numbers are available, these ports handled 1.18 million Twenty-foot Equivalent Units (TEU). (One TEU is one 20-foot container or its equivalent.)

The October total was up four percent from September –but down 14 percent from October 2008.

November was estimated at 1.09 million TEU, down 12 percent from last year, and December is forecast at 1.05 million TEU, down one percent from last year. January 2010 is forecast at 1.02 million TEU, down four percent from January 2009.

But after all that, analysts are expecting a turnaround.

For example, in February 2010, cargo is expected to total 972,391 TEU –a 16 percent increase over February 2009. March 2010 is forecast at 1.02 million TEU, a six percent increase over March 2009, and April 2010 is forecast at 1.08 million TEU, a nine percent increase over April 2010. (Since Port Tracker forecasts only six months in advance, later numbers aren’t available.)

“We’ve been seeing hints of a turnaround in our past few reports but this is starting to look like a clear trend,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold says. “If retailers are starting to import more merchandise, it’s because they expect to be able to sell more and that’s a good sign for our industry and the overall economy.”