@Risk

Last spring, European credit risk managers were somewhat optimistic about delinquencies across mortgages, auto loans and other credit products.

Now, much of that confidence seems to have evaporated.

The third European Credit Risk Survey, which was conducted by FICO and Efma in September, found that: (more…)

For anyone raising children, the last few weeks of summer are typically peppered with shopping trips for back-to-school supplies.  It’s a key season for retailers, typically second only to holiday shopping in December.

This year is proving to be no exception. Despite concerns about the volatile economy, a recent study by Deloitte found that nearly nine out of 10 consumers plan to maintain or increase their back-to-school spending. More specifically:

• 86 percent of the households surveyed expect to spend the same or more on back-to-school items this year.
• Even so, consumers said they will be vigilant about the cost of the items they plan to purchase. Three out of 10 (29 percent) consumers believe prices on new back-to-school merchandise are higher than a year ago, and nearly two-thirds (65 percent) said low prices are the most important retailer attribute for back-to-school shopping.
• More than half (55 percent) of those polled reported that they will buy only what the family needs, and more than one-quarter (26 percent) will reuse last year’s items due to concerns about the economy or their finances. Nearly three out of 10 (28 percent) will consolidate trips to save on gas.

Which inflation-related concerns could derail consumer spending this season? Seven out of 10 respondents cited higher food prices (72 percent) and higher energy prices (70 percent), followed by roughly half (51 percent) who pointed to the lack of improvement in the job market.

“Retailers need to be prepared for a consumer who is sensitive to prices, especially with the pinch households are feeling from higher gas and energy costs this summer,” said Alison Paul, vice chairman, Deloitte LLP and Deloitte’s retail & distribution sector leader. “Retailers should monitor customers’ reactions closely to recognize where they are flexible, and where promotions are necessary to drive traffic and generate purchases of higher margin products in the store.”

Deloitte also probed evolving consumer buying behaviors. The survey found that shoppers increasingly rely on mobile devices and social networks for brand information, discounts, etc. For example: (more…)

Retail industry sales are up again, marking the 12^th consecutive month of increases.

According to data from the National Retail Federation, retail industry sales (which exclude automobiles, gas stations, and restaurants) in June increased 0.3 percent seasonally adjusted from May and 5.5 percent unadjusted year-over-year.

June retail sales (which include non-general merchandise categories such as autos, gasoline stations and restaurants) also rose. Those figures, released last week by the US commerce Department, increased 0.1 percent seasonally adjusted month-to-month and 8.4 percent unadjusted year-over-year.

The National Retail Federation says last month’s warm weather, lower gas prices and strong Father’s Day promotions put consumers in a spending mood. In particular: (more…)

A new study predicts that over the next 15 years, the global automotive industry will undergo the greatest transformation in its history.

In particular, the Automotive Landscape 2025 study, conducted by Roland Berger Strategy Consultants, forecasts six significant automotive trends: (more…)

Most of us now consider GPS positioning an ordinary part of our home and work life.

But, is our reliance of global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) putting us –and our work –at risk?

The UK’s Royal Academy of Engineering thinks so. In a new report, the Academy says that now that the range of satellite navigation systems is so broad, signal failure or interference could potentially affect safety systems and other critical parts of the economy.

“GPS and other GNSS are so useful and so cheap to build into equipment that we have become almost blindly reliant on the data they give us,” explained Dr. Martyn Thomas CBE FREng, Chairman of the Academy’s GNSS working group. “A significant failure of GPS could cause lots of services to fail at the same time, including many that are thought to be completely independent of each other. The use of non-GNSS back ups is important across all critical uses of GNSS.”

The report, Global Navigation Space Systems: reliance and vulnerabilities, points out that satellite navigation signals are now in widespread use –by data networks, financial systems, shipping and air transport, agriculture, railways and emergency services. In fact, the European Commission, in its mid-term review of the European satellite radio navigation programs this January estimated that an €800 billion chunk of the European economy is already dependent on GNSS.

Unfortunately, though, all GNSS applications are vulnerable to failure, disruption and interference, from both natural and malicious causes. (more…)