@Risk

After several down months of retailers reducing their imports compared to last year, we’re likely to see a (slight) turnaround in December.

The monthly Global Port Tracker report, released last week by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates, forecasts that import cargo volume at the nation’s major retail container ports should increase 0.3 percent this month compared to December 2010.

Global Port Tracker covers the US ports of Long Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast, New York/New Jersey, Hampton Roads, Charleston and Savannah on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast. It records retail container traffic in Twenty-foot Equivalent Units (TEU), where one TEU is one 20-foot cargo container or its equivalent.

Here is the volume these ports have handled over the past few months: (more…)

Even though optimism about the economy remains tempered by stubbornly high unemployment rates, the National Retail Federation predicts that the 2010 holiday retail season will surpass expectations and lead to retail sales that will rival 2007 levels by mid-year.

Other experts have a similar positive outlook, and according to The Journal of Commerce, some analysts now forecast US containerized ocean imports and exports in trans-Pacific trade to return to pre-recession levels in 2011. More specifically, forecast numbers from PIERS, a sister company of The Journal of Commerce, predict U.S. container imports from Asia will rise 7.7 percent next year to 13.4 million 20-foot equivalent units – nearly in line with the 2007 peak of 13.6 million TEUs. Trans-Pacific exports are expected to grow by 4 percent to 6.4 million TEUs.

The growth follows an estimated 15.5 percent increase in U.S. trans-Pacific imports in 2010 and a 4.3 percent increase in exports in 2010. Most see this uptick as a shift in attitude: supply chain managers are moving from cautious optimism to stronger confidence in demand.

“Our forecast is positive but moderate,” Mario O. Moreno, economist for PIERS and The Journal of Commerce, said. “We look for growth in containerized imports and exports ahead, but there are many risks.”

Last week, The Journal of Commerce also reported that other indicators of future economic activity are also pointing toward growth. According to the article: (more…)

The World Shipping Council (WSC) and the International Chamber of Shipping (ICS) want all loaded containers be weighed at the marine port facility before they are stowed aboard a vessel for export.

In a joint statement issued last week, the WSC and ICS urge the International Maritime Organization (IMO) to establish an international legal requirement that all loaded containers be weighed at the marine port facility before they are stowed aboard a vessel for export.

According to the WSC and ICS, In the absence of a legal requirement that marine terminal operators perform a weighing function for all loaded (“stuffed”) containers before vessel loading, it seems likely that a significant number of unweighed and overweight containers will continue to pose a risk to safe ship operations, to ships’ crew, and to other personnel in the transport chain. In addition, overweight containers threaten operational reliability and add to liability claims, operating costs, and administrative expenses.

Specifically, WSC and ICS propose that: (more…)

Even though import cargo volume at major US retail container ports is on the downswing, analysts still expect totals to be up 9 percent in November over the same month last year.

As you may recall, December 2009 broke a 28-month streak of year-over-year declines. Then, this past September –the latest month for which actual numbers are available –was the tenth month in a row to show a year-over-year improvement.

Now, according to the Global Port Tracker report by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates: (more…)

Although we haven’t seen much national press about it recently, piracy remains a formidable threat in the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean. Obviously, the risks are particularly acute for shippers that routinely traverse those waters, and now, the world’s three largest container shipping companies have decided to join forces in hopes of combating the problem.

CMA CGM, MSC and Maersk Line announced last week that they have formed a new partnership designed to: 1) foster information exchange on safety measures, piracy policies and procedures, and 2) coordinate efforts for addressing the issue with all relevant stakeholders.

In particular, CMA CGM, MSC and Maersk Line say they support: (more…)