@Risk

After several down months of retailers reducing their imports compared to last year, we’re likely to see a (slight) turnaround in December.

The monthly Global Port Tracker report, released last week by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates, forecasts that import cargo volume at the nation’s major retail container ports should increase 0.3 percent this month compared to December 2010.

Global Port Tracker covers the US ports of Long Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast, New York/New Jersey, Hampton Roads, Charleston and Savannah on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast. It records retail container traffic in Twenty-foot Equivalent Units (TEU), where one TEU is one 20-foot cargo container or its equivalent.

Here is the volume these ports have handled over the past few months: (more…)

The House Oversight and Government Reform Subcommittee held a hearing last week about a proposed rule to limit truck driver time.

The rule, proposed by the Transportation Department, is an effort to reduce the risk and prevalence of fatigue-related truck crashes through improvements in the hours of service (HOS) regulations. Under the proposal, the current 11-hour HOS daily limit for drivers would be reduced to a 10-hour limit. In addition, the 34 hours of time off currently required between each week of driving would have to include at least two midnight-to-6 a.m. periods of nighttime rest.

In a statement, Anne S. Ferro, administrator of the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration, offered detailed historical perspective on this rulemaking, as well as an analysis of its economic impact.

From the statement:

With regard to the economic impact of the proposed rule, FMCSA estimated that the regulatory option that included a 10-hour limit on driving time during the work day would impose costs of approximately $1 billion per year with annual safety and economic benefits of approximately $1.4 billion. The net benefits would be $380 million per year. The regulatory option that included an 11-hour limit on driving time during the work day would impose costs of approximately $520 million per year with annual safety and economic benefits slightly greater than $1 billion. The net benefits for this option would be $560 million per year. FMCSA acknowledged that the 10-hour driving time component of the rulemaking contributed more than $500 million to the estimated cost of the rule while providing only $330 million in safety and economic benefits. However, taken as a whole, the regulatory option that included a 10-hour driving time limit was cost-beneficial, based on the Agency’s analysis of the crash data and research.

Not everyone agrees the changes would be beneficial. Opponents of the proposed rule say shortening the daily driving limit would: (more…)

Retail industry sales are up again, marking the 12^th consecutive month of increases.

According to data from the National Retail Federation, retail industry sales (which exclude automobiles, gas stations, and restaurants) in June increased 0.3 percent seasonally adjusted from May and 5.5 percent unadjusted year-over-year.

June retail sales (which include non-general merchandise categories such as autos, gasoline stations and restaurants) also rose. Those figures, released last week by the US commerce Department, increased 0.1 percent seasonally adjusted month-to-month and 8.4 percent unadjusted year-over-year.

The National Retail Federation says last month’s warm weather, lower gas prices and strong Father’s Day promotions put consumers in a spending mood. In particular: (more…)

Even though optimism about the economy remains tempered by stubbornly high unemployment rates, the National Retail Federation predicts that the 2010 holiday retail season will surpass expectations and lead to retail sales that will rival 2007 levels by mid-year.

Other experts have a similar positive outlook, and according to The Journal of Commerce, some analysts now forecast US containerized ocean imports and exports in trans-Pacific trade to return to pre-recession levels in 2011. More specifically, forecast numbers from PIERS, a sister company of The Journal of Commerce, predict U.S. container imports from Asia will rise 7.7 percent next year to 13.4 million 20-foot equivalent units – nearly in line with the 2007 peak of 13.6 million TEUs. Trans-Pacific exports are expected to grow by 4 percent to 6.4 million TEUs.

The growth follows an estimated 15.5 percent increase in U.S. trans-Pacific imports in 2010 and a 4.3 percent increase in exports in 2010. Most see this uptick as a shift in attitude: supply chain managers are moving from cautious optimism to stronger confidence in demand.

“Our forecast is positive but moderate,” Mario O. Moreno, economist for PIERS and The Journal of Commerce, said. “We look for growth in containerized imports and exports ahead, but there are many risks.”

Last week, The Journal of Commerce also reported that other indicators of future economic activity are also pointing toward growth. According to the article: (more…)

Even though import cargo volume at major US retail container ports is on the downswing, analysts still expect totals to be up 9 percent in November over the same month last year.

As you may recall, December 2009 broke a 28-month streak of year-over-year declines. Then, this past September –the latest month for which actual numbers are available –was the tenth month in a row to show a year-over-year improvement.

Now, according to the Global Port Tracker report by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates: (more…)