@Risk

After several down months of retailers reducing their imports compared to last year, we’re likely to see a (slight) turnaround in December.

The monthly Global Port Tracker report, released last week by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates, forecasts that import cargo volume at the nation’s major retail container ports should increase 0.3 percent this month compared to December 2010.

Global Port Tracker covers the US ports of Long Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast, New York/New Jersey, Hampton Roads, Charleston and Savannah on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast. It records retail container traffic in Twenty-foot Equivalent Units (TEU), where one TEU is one 20-foot cargo container or its equivalent.

Here is the volume these ports have handled over the past few months: (more…)

Most of us now consider GPS positioning an ordinary part of our home and work life.

But, is our reliance of global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) putting us –and our work –at risk?

The UK’s Royal Academy of Engineering thinks so. In a new report, the Academy says that now that the range of satellite navigation systems is so broad, signal failure or interference could potentially affect safety systems and other critical parts of the economy.

“GPS and other GNSS are so useful and so cheap to build into equipment that we have become almost blindly reliant on the data they give us,” explained Dr. Martyn Thomas CBE FREng, Chairman of the Academy’s GNSS working group. “A significant failure of GPS could cause lots of services to fail at the same time, including many that are thought to be completely independent of each other. The use of non-GNSS back ups is important across all critical uses of GNSS.”

The report, Global Navigation Space Systems: reliance and vulnerabilities, points out that satellite navigation signals are now in widespread use –by data networks, financial systems, shipping and air transport, agriculture, railways and emergency services. In fact, the European Commission, in its mid-term review of the European satellite radio navigation programs this January estimated that an €800 billion chunk of the European economy is already dependent on GNSS.

Unfortunately, though, all GNSS applications are vulnerable to failure, disruption and interference, from both natural and malicious causes. (more…)

Friday’s devastating earthquake and tsunami will have broad economic implications.

For instance, The Detroit News is reporting that Japan’s leading automakers are suspending production at their domestic plants on Monday as they assess the condition of their factories and parts suppliers.

Toyota Motor Corp., Nissan Motor Co. and Honda Motor Co.have suffered damage at more than a dozen plants and facilities.

Toyota says that it is now conducting a detailed survey of each plant to determine the extent of any damage. The company is also assessing the situation at our suppliers, dealers and the impact on North American import vehicles.

Updates from Nissan are available here.

We’re likely to see shutdowns in the high tech and semiconductor manufacturing industry –and others –as well. (more…)

Could the unrest in Egypt disrupt activity through the Suez Canal?

Last week, Gen. James Mattis, head of the US Central Command responsible for military operations in the region, called closure of the Suez Canal “inconceivable.” Still, if there did happen to be any disruptions, he said the US would respond “diplomatically, economically, militarily.”

Although supplies traveling through the port of Suez have not been disrupted, rising tensions are forcing several shipping companies to modify their operations. For example, some companies have ordered ships not to change crews in Egypt, and port employees must leave their posts early to comply with the government curfew that begins in the late afternoon, according to The New York Times.

Will your supply chain be disrupted? Are commodity prices likely to rise? (more…)

Even though optimism about the economy remains tempered by stubbornly high unemployment rates, the National Retail Federation predicts that the 2010 holiday retail season will surpass expectations and lead to retail sales that will rival 2007 levels by mid-year.

Other experts have a similar positive outlook, and according to The Journal of Commerce, some analysts now forecast US containerized ocean imports and exports in trans-Pacific trade to return to pre-recession levels in 2011. More specifically, forecast numbers from PIERS, a sister company of The Journal of Commerce, predict U.S. container imports from Asia will rise 7.7 percent next year to 13.4 million 20-foot equivalent units – nearly in line with the 2007 peak of 13.6 million TEUs. Trans-Pacific exports are expected to grow by 4 percent to 6.4 million TEUs.

The growth follows an estimated 15.5 percent increase in U.S. trans-Pacific imports in 2010 and a 4.3 percent increase in exports in 2010. Most see this uptick as a shift in attitude: supply chain managers are moving from cautious optimism to stronger confidence in demand.

“Our forecast is positive but moderate,” Mario O. Moreno, economist for PIERS and The Journal of Commerce, said. “We look for growth in containerized imports and exports ahead, but there are many risks.”

Last week, The Journal of Commerce also reported that other indicators of future economic activity are also pointing toward growth. According to the article: (more…)