@Risk

Brazil is now ranked as the top developing economy for global retail expansion, according to the 10th annual Global Retail development Index (GRDI) released last week by A.T. Kearney.

A.T. Kearney says the 2011 GRDI ranking mirrors the dramatic changes that have taken place in global markets, and the varying impacts they have had on different emerging economies.

For example, South American countries have fared well during the recession, posting an impressive 6 percent GDP growth in 2010. In addition to Brazil’s top ranking, three other South American countries made the Top 10 of the GRDI: Uruguay, Chile and Peru.

Brazil jumped to first place from #5 in last year’s GRDI. Likewise, Uruguay climbed up the rankings to #2 from #8 last year, and Chile rose from #6 in 2010 to #3 this year.

The Middle East and North Africa also ranked highly in the 2011 GRDI.  Political unrest in countries like Egypt and Tunisia are undoubtedly current challenges to growth, but Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE (all top 10 GRDI markets in 2011) have not experienced the turmoil of some of their neighbors and are expected to remain stable going forward.

Here is a complete list of the Top 10 GRDI markets in 2011: (more…)

Consumer confidence in the retail industry is on the rise, increasing almost 20 percent since 2009, according to new research from Aon Risk Solutions.

Aon found that when retailers looked back on 2010, they cited their top five risks as:

• the economy,

• reputation risk,

• supply system disruption,

• liability risk and

• major business interruption.

(Not surprising, considering the global recession, recalls and natural disasters that punctuated the rocky business landscape last year.)

When retailers look forward, they’re anticipating growth. Aon’s 2010 U.S. Retail Industry Report revealed that growth is retailers’ number one priority, followed by the objectives to increase profitability, control costs, provide business continuity and stabilize operations. Risk managers are going to have to step up in order for organizations to realize these goals.  Fortunately, the vast majority (80 percent) of retailers at Aon’s Retail Symposium held last fall said that they expect the responsibility and accountability of the risk management function to grow in the coming year. (more…)

Even though optimism about the economy remains tempered by stubbornly high unemployment rates, the National Retail Federation predicts that the 2010 holiday retail season will surpass expectations and lead to retail sales that will rival 2007 levels by mid-year.

Other experts have a similar positive outlook, and according to The Journal of Commerce, some analysts now forecast US containerized ocean imports and exports in trans-Pacific trade to return to pre-recession levels in 2011. More specifically, forecast numbers from PIERS, a sister company of The Journal of Commerce, predict U.S. container imports from Asia will rise 7.7 percent next year to 13.4 million 20-foot equivalent units – nearly in line with the 2007 peak of 13.6 million TEUs. Trans-Pacific exports are expected to grow by 4 percent to 6.4 million TEUs.

The growth follows an estimated 15.5 percent increase in U.S. trans-Pacific imports in 2010 and a 4.3 percent increase in exports in 2010. Most see this uptick as a shift in attitude: supply chain managers are moving from cautious optimism to stronger confidence in demand.

“Our forecast is positive but moderate,” Mario O. Moreno, economist for PIERS and The Journal of Commerce, said. “We look for growth in containerized imports and exports ahead, but there are many risks.”

Last week, The Journal of Commerce also reported that other indicators of future economic activity are also pointing toward growth. According to the article: (more…)

Nearly one-third of retailers in the UK would rather risk running out of supplies this December than have excess stock on their hands, according to new research from NetSuite Inc.

The study, carried out among over 250 UK retailers by ORB (Opinion Research Business), found that the potential stock shortages during retailers’ traditionally busiest time of the year continue a trend for retailers to hold less inventory during the downturn. A third of survey respondents (34 percent) said that they had deliberately kept stock levels low throughout 2010 in response to the economic climate, and almost half (44 percent) reported they will be keeping stock levels very tight even in the run up to Christmas.

As you might expect, retailers are passing the pressure onto their wholesale / distribution partners, with two in five retailers (40 percent) asking suppliers to maintain discounts or cut prices, even if they have been ordering lower volumes, and half of retailers (47 percent) are using more suppliers to enable price comparisons and help drive down costs. 30 percent of respondents are asking their suppliers for shorter order fulfillment times. (more…)

Even though import cargo volume at major US retail container ports is on the downswing, analysts still expect totals to be up 9 percent in November over the same month last year.

As you may recall, December 2009 broke a 28-month streak of year-over-year declines. Then, this past September –the latest month for which actual numbers are available –was the tenth month in a row to show a year-over-year improvement.

Now, according to the Global Port Tracker report by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates: (more…)