@Risk

Mounting tensions with Iran have many keeping a watchful eye on global energy prices. However, Iran is not the only potential trouble-spot.

The results of Maplecroft’s Resource Nationalism Index show that a full 44 percent of global oil production currently occurs in countries that pose a ‘high’ or ‘extreme risk’ of resource nationalism. In fact, the list includes eight of the twelve members of OPEC .

As Maplecroft defines it, resource nationalism is a rising phenomenon where governments of countries hosting large reserves of natural resources try to secure greater economic benefit from their exploitation or leverage political gain through restricting supplies. This not only has operational and financial implications for extractive companies operating in these countries, but it could create further instability for the global energy markets.

The Resource Nationalism Index identifies the risk of resource nationalism across 197 countries.

Maplecroft included nine countries in the “extreme” risk category: (more…)

Over the next few decades, US water resources are likely to be severely strained by the combined impacts of population growth, increases in power generation and climate change.

In fact, more than one in three of the 3,100+ counties in the US could face a “high” or “extreme” risk of water shortages by the middle of the 21st century, according to a new study in ACS’s Journal of Environmental Science & Technology.

The research also found that seven out of ten of the US counties could face “some” risk of shortages of fresh water for drinking, farming and other uses.

The study, Projecting Water Withdrawal and Supply for Future Decades in the U.S. under Climate Change Scenarios,  features a “water supply sustainability risk index” that includes water withdrawal, projected growth, susceptibility to drought, projected climate change and other factors in individual US counties for the year 2050. It also takes into account renewable water supply through precipitation using the most recent downscaled climate change projections and estimates future withdrawals for various human uses.

By using this water index, the research team was able to conclude that climate change could foster an “extreme” risk of water shortages that may develop in 412 counties in southern and southwestern states, as well as in southern Great Plains states. (more…)

In the second annual Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP) Water Disclosure Global Report released last week, more than half (59 percent) of the companies surveyed said they are exposed to water-related risks such as flooding, scarcity and reputational damage.

What’s more, almost four in 10 (38 percent) already have experienced water-related business impacts, including disruption to operations from severe weather events (e.g., flooding) and water shortages.

And companies described most of their water risks as near- term. Nearly two-thirds (66 percent) of risks in the supply chain and 64 percent of risks in direct operations were identified as occurring between now and 2016.

But even so, the report also found that only 57 percent of the 190 publicly listed organizations that participated in the survey implement board-level oversight of water policies, strategies or plans. By comparison, a report released by CDP in September 2011 showed that 94 percent of Global 500 companies report board-level oversight of climate change.

Why the gap? While it’s encouraging to see that awareness about water risks is on the rise, it’s also clear that companies need to strengthen their oversight of water-related issues –particularly in the supply chain. The CDP report revealed that more than one-third of companies (38 percent) are unaware of whether they are exposed to water risk in their supply chains. In the Consumer Discretionary sector, which is dominated by industries that are particularly exposed to supply chain risk (e.g., retailers, hotels, resorts, and automobile manufacturers), that percentage rose to 41 percent.

The report also found that: (more…)

Last week, the world population reached 7 billion. Almost concurrently, NRG Expert released new forecasts which show that, given the current rate of population growth, global electricity supply is not likely to keep pace with future energy needs.

According to the new study, the energy tipping point is only about 20 years from now. NRG Expert predicts that 2032 will be the pivotal year where global electricity demand is likely to surpass supply based on global generation.

Of course, population growth isn’t the only factor that impacts the sustainability of the world’s energy supply. As NRG Expert points out, depleted natural resources and the phasing out of nuclear power in developed and developing countries also play a role.

A new report from Capgemini seems to draw a similar conclusion. The 13^th edition of the European Energy Markets Observatory (EEMO) found that energy consumption growth in developing countries, the Fukushima accident and the slowing down of the needed investments made by utilities all will have negative consequences on the security of energy supply and greenhouse gas emissions in Europe. (more…)

More than 100 global economies –including six G7 economies –have energy supplies that are at “extreme” or “high” risk in the short-term, according to a new analysis from Maplecroft.

The study, titled The Energy Security (short-term) Index, assesses immediate risks to the availability, affordability and continuity of energy supplies in 196 countries by evaluating energy imports, diversity of supplies, import security and energy costs.

Maplecroft rated three countries, Sierra Leone (1), Gambia (2) and Guinea Bissau (3), as “extreme risk” in the short-term index.

In addition, another 122 nations are rated “high risk” in the short-term index, including the G7 economies of: (more…)