@Risk

Because of cash shortages, one in eight U.S. carriers has given serious consideration to leaving the industry if rates do not improve soon, according to a fourth quarter Business Expectations Survey released by Transport Capital Partner (TCP) last week.

One in 4.5 carriers under $25 million in revenue are considering the same.

But altogether, that’s only about half as many as were thinking about leaving the industry in February. In fact, for the second consecutive quarter, most carriers expressed optimism on volumes seven to 12 months forward, although about 40 percent of fleets don’t expect an upturn until 2011.

Other findings of note from the survey:

• More than 50 percent of carriers in the survey say their receivables are up.

• Only 80.2 percent report that they are current on equipment payments, and

• 11 percent have had lenders modify payments.

• Six months ago, 90 percent were current and only four percent were current after modifications.

• The fleet replacement cycle has slowed, particularly for smaller fleets.

• What’s more, most (82 percent) of carriers do not intend to pre-buy newer, more expensive engines in anticipation of 2010 standards.

As we have seen with other recent research, this data is somewhat of a mixed bag –but with encouraging hints of optimism scattered throughout. The good news is that most are predicting we’ll see our way out of the recession in 2010.

Graphs from the TCP survey are available here.